Fantasy Baseball: More dudes you need to love in 2010.
1. Jacoby Ellsbury- It's time to compare players!
Player A (2009): 606 ABs, 15 HR, 96 R, 68 RBI, 60 SB, .305, .816 OPS
Player B (2009): 624 ABs, 8 HR, 94 R, 60 RBI, 70 SB, .301, .770 OPS
Pretty close, eh? What if I told you that player A will likely be drafted as a top three outfielder in 2010, while player B could be drafted near the third round in drafts. I'm sure you know this but Player A was Carl Crawford and B was Jacoby Ellsbury. Crawford may give you a few more home runs and Ellsbury may get you more SBs, but I'm just not drafting Crawford in the first or second round when you can get someone at a thinner position and wait on Ellsbury.
2. Jayson Werth- Could be one of the most underrated players going into drafts next year. After putting up a season with 36 home runs, 98 runs, 99 RBIm, 20 SB and hitting .268, I could see Werth being drafted after the likes of Grady Sizemore (returning from elbow surgery,) Nick Markakis, Alfonso Soriano, Jason Bay, B.J. Upton and Josh Hamilton. Each one of those players has their downside, whether if be age, durability or just plain production and I'll be happy getting a four category stud in the later rounds than to gamble on one of the bigger "names" out there.
3. Brian Wilson- I understand how it may be tough to hold off on a closer when you have such elite talents like Joe Nathan and Mariano Rivera, but there's one player who impresses me just as much as the elite closers and that guy is Brian Wilson. Over his first two seasons as the Giants full-time closer, Wilson has racked up 79 saves, 150 K, 55 BB, 122 hits in 134.2 innings. In 2008, Wilson had an ERA of 4.62 but his FIP suggested he'd pitched like a 3.93 guy and in 2009, his FIP suggested he'd pitched better than his 2.74 ERA with a 2.50. If your reliever puts up excellent K/9 and save totals, it makes it worth his higher possibility of putting up an ugly whip or ERA since one bad outing for a reliever can be offset by one decent start by another pitcher.
(c) 2009 Sportsblogs, Inc.
Early poll results show fans want McGwire
Do Cardinals fans want Mark McGwire to be the team's hitting coach in 2010? Based on an unscientific poll posted on www.bnd.com Monday, they do -- by more than a 2-to-1 margin.
The poll showed almost two-thirds of respondents said they favored Big Mac's return, according to the hundreds who took part in the online-only poll.
About 65 percent said McGwire would help the Cardinals hitters, 28 percent said he would be a distraction for the team and about 9 percent said we'd have to wait to see how it all turned out.
You can still go online and cast your opinion.
Below are comments readers on stories about McGwire's return, appearing on bnd.com ...
Hey, if Rush Limbaugh can't own part of an NFL team, then Big MACSTEROID should not be part of a baseball team for the same reason -- CONTROVERSY. What message does this send the kids?
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The biggest question that I have is how good of a hitting coach will he be? It wasn't like he was a "great hitter" like some of you say he was. He was a good hitter at best with great power, big difference. Don't we already have enough power hitting guys who strike out frequently and do not hit with runners in scoring position? I just don't know if he really improves the Cardinals hitting, I hope that he does but I don't think he is the answer. I also cannot believe that there are actually some people out there who still think that he did not do steroids, please tell me where you are at because I have a few things that I would like to sell you.
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In related news -- MLB Fantasy Baseball Network has projected Julio Lugo will hit 68 home runs in the 2010 season.
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I think all you naysayers are Cubs fans in disguise. And you obviously have poor listening skills. Have you ever heard him say he took steroids? Hello...it is because he didn't. Did he take things that eventually became illegal to the league? Yes. One rogue player (Conseco) writes a "tell all" book, and everyone takes it as gospel. The Cardinals org. would not have allowed him to continue to wear the uniform, and Tony has no tolerance for that. So get over yourselves, and cheer on the greatest baseball team ever! GO CARDS!! And welcome back Big Mac!!
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What about all the KIDS that looked up to and emulated McGwire and then ruined their health and their lives doing what he did? McGwire is not a good role model for kids or anyone for that matter. Disgraceful.. What a great message the Cards organization is sending to kids. It's OK to cheat to gain an advantage,there will be no consequences. Even when you're caught you can lie your way out of it and you won't be punished. In fact kids, if you cheat you will be rewarded. It is disgraceful, disgusting and disheartening what the Cards are doing.
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He deserves a second chance just like everyone else in today's society. But don't think that his crime was any less than other drug users!
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It's becoming clearer and clearer, and not just from the McGwire saga, that the enshrined idea of innocent until proven guilty and the right to not self-incriminate has fallen on lean times. More and more it's "Gotcha", guilty until you prove yourself innocent. If you float you're a witch and we burn you, and if you sink and drown, you're innocent and we give you a Christian burial. During the "Andro" flap, I remember seeing Andro for sale to anyone on the shelves at GNC. I have no idea why McGwire answered the way he did and paid the price he did. It's really none of my business being his right. He has been found guilty of nothing. Senator McCarthy is probably smiling from wherever he resides these days.
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Well maybe everyone will remember one of the most exciting years in baseball, when everyone in the country was watching cardinals and cubs games just to see if mark and sammy would get closer to the record. They may have used banned drugs but they made the year. Mark is a good hitter no matter what people say; making solid contact on a 90mph fastball does not come from steroid use.
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.263 lifetime average and 1,596 strikeouts. That's the hitting coach I want.
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Quietly help them cheat? That what he did and that is what he is, a cheater. If he wasn't cheating, then why not open, honest answers during the inquiry(?) Nothing to hide, prove it with honesty and FULL disclosure.
(c) Belleville News Democrat.
If Naivete Is Bliss, Is Wrigley Field Heaven?
The Cubs have an incredible fan base, one that many teams would give their best player to have at any home game. No matter the weather or the team's record, over the last 15 years the team has packed the house almost every single day.
But I have a beef with Cubs' Nation.
There are a lot of Cubs fans that love the game of baseball.
There are a lot of Cubs fans that love the idea of being Cubs fans and going to Wrigley Field.
There are a lot of meatheads that like to twist numbers and ideas into making it appear like, on paper, the Cubs have won each of the last four World Series.
Wonderful. It's the mix of those three groups, with a great contribution from the corporate "here to be seen" fans, that make going to Cubs' home games a unique experience. But the dynamic drives me crazy sometimes.
My mother falls into the first group of Cubs fans; she's one of those pie-in-the-sky, "It's Gonna Happen" fans that builds every player on the Cubs up to near-god status for four months a year and then swirls away in a downward spiral of depression every August and September (or, the last two years, October).
I love her, but it's hard to watch.
The Cubs players are human beings. They aren't always perfect, and aren't always miserable, either. There exists a middle ground called reality, where most non-steroid using players usually settle.
There are other friends of mine that fall into the second group described above, the Bandwagon Faithful as I like to call them. When the team's rolling over the likes of Pittsburgh or Washington, they're wearing their hats on the train to work every day and are trying to find tickets every Saturday.
But when the Cardinals come to town and kill the parade or the Giants come in and drop two shutouts in a three-game series, and the cloud surrounding the silver lining appears, they're ready for some football or, dare I say it, watching the White Sox.
There are ups and downs in a 162 game season, and the team is going to win and lose games every year. They're going to win some games they shouldn't, and lose some games they shouldn't as well. That's just the nature of the marathon baseball season.
Then there are the fans that think an elementary level statistical analysis will cure all of the team's ills. They think that, if the numbers indicate a player should perform a certain way, it's a great indicator of how the team should play.
There's a problem with putting numbers in a sterile environment (ie "on paper"): baseball is a game of context and the unexpected.
Take the 2008 team for example. "On paper," they were the best team in the National League. How'd that work out?
Look at some players on the 2009 roster. If you take Carlos Zambrano's statistical line out of context, you would swear he won 18 games and was waiting for a phone call from the Cy Young nomination committee.
But then you step back and look at his stat sheet, and he won nine games.
Milton Bradley had an incredible year "on paper" in 2008 with the Texas Rangers. For a fantasy baseball team, he was a great player to have on the roster. For the Chicago Cubs, it didn't turn out so well.
Now, there are some statistics that, when placed in a sterile environment, might tell you that Bradley earned his salary in 2009. And yet the team sent him home before the season ended and didn't miss him for an instant.
To wear blinders and believe that a fantasy baseball team will win a World Series is ridiculous (no matter what the 2009 New York Yankees might lead you to believe). To remove any player from the context of the team they're on is one way to lose perspective too quickly.
There needs to become a larger group in the fourth part of the Cubs' fan base. Those fans that take statistics and appreciate the performances of players within their proper context. They should take the season as it comes and drink their Budweiser watching the Bears, Bulls, and Blackhawks between the end of the season and Spring Training.
I know this article will undoubtedly spark a healthy argument from some of my good friends on B/R (Matt Trueblood, Marco Radenkovic, Bob Warja, etc). The great thing about Chicago baseball is that, at least on the North Side, we're used to having a spirited offseason debate from the beginning of October until March.
My hope is that Cubs fans can spend this winter not staring at what did, or didn't, happen this past season, or which Cubs over/under performed and who's being over/under paid.
Let's spend this winter placing our Cubs Faith into the new ownership group to hold the management group, specifically Jim Hendry, accountable for how the team performs.
No more "It's Gonna Happen" or "Wait Til Next Year." And no more blaming the goat, Bartman, Leon Durham, or Alex S. Gonzalez for 101 years of failure.
How about doing something right?
(c) 2009 Bleacher Report, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Postseason brings new fantasy fun
Beat the Streak joins Survivor, Bracket Challenge in October.
With time winding down until Tuesday's Tigers-Twins playoff, fantasy baseball participants will soon be able to officially crown the winners of their leagues.
But the conclusion of the regular season doesn't mean that fantasy baseball is finished for the year, as MLB.com has rolled out its slate of postseason games, featuring prizes such as $10,000 as well as Opening Day and All-Star tickets.
Back once again is Postseason Survivor and Postseason Bracket Challenge. And this year, a new game is being added to the mix with Postseason Beat the Streak.
"Beat the Streak has been one of our most popular games since 2001, so we're introducing a postseason version for fans to enjoy," said Gregg Klayman, Vice President of Content Development for Major League Baseball Advanced Media. "All of our games add a little more excitement to October baseball, even if your favorite team isn't involved."
Like the regular-season version of Beat the Streak, Postseason Beat the Streak requires you to pick the one player every game day you who think is most likely to get a hit. You stay alive as long as your selected player collects at least one hit when he makes an official plate appearance.
There are no rules that limit the choices, as you're free to pick the same player every time his team plays this postseason, or to go with a different player every day. If you put together the longest postseason hit streak, you'll win two tickets to the 2010 MLB All-Star Game at Angel Stadium.
The rules for Postseason Survivor are also the same as the regular-season version. Select one team every day, and if that team wins, you get to continue playing. If your team loses, you can start a new streak. If you survive the longest out of all the competitors, you'll win two tickets to the 2010 MLB Opening Day game of your choice.
Postseason Bracket Challenge is another contest that tests your ability to pick winning teams, though the results aren't necessarily determined on a day-to-day basis. In this game, you predict the winners of each of the seven postseason series as well as the number of games you think each series will last.
Sign up and fill out an entire bracket before the start of the first postseason game on Wednesday. If you get the whole bracket right, you'll win $10,000. If more than one person calls it all right, then tiebreaker questions will determine the winner.
Each of the teams in the postseason has the opportunity to emerge with the big prize, as does anybody who plays Postseason Beat the Streak, Postseason Survivor and Postseason Bracket Challenge.
So if you had a strong finish to your fantasy baseball season and are looking to continue the momentum, or if you just want to add a little spice to the October action, then sign up to play one or all of these fun postseason games.
(c) 2001-2009 MLB Advanced Media, L.P. All rights reserved.
Fantasy Baseball: 2009 Breakout Hitters-NL East
Today I am starting a series on the hitters who have had breakout seasons in 2009, starting in the NL East. First up are the world champion Philadelphia Phillies.
Phillies-Jayson Werth- Werth has improved upon his 24-67-20-0.273 2008 season by going 35-96-15-.266 in his first year as an everyday player. He has accomplished his power increase by increasing his BB% from 11.8% in 2008 to 13.5% in 2009, while maintaining a HR/FB% of 14.8% .Ron Shandler, from BaseballHQ, predicted a 30-30 season for Werth, and Werth exceeded his power prediction. He will be a top 5-6 outfielder in NL only leagues in 2010.
Braves-Martin Prado-Prado won the 2B job from Kelly Johnson earlier this season and has never looked back. Prado was a part-time player each of the last 3 seasons in Atlanta, but Prado has performed well as a starter. In 474 ABs this season, he has gone 11-49-.303-.353-.463-.816, which is solid for a second baseman. He has a good eye at the plate as evidenced by his 53/33 K/BB ratio. He never hit more than 5 HRs in the minors, but has always hit for a solid AVG and gotten on base. I am curious if he can improve upon his HR totals in 2010, but his 35 doubles tells me that he may just do that.
Marlins-Chris Coghlan-Coghlan was called up by the Marlins back in May to play everyday, whether it was at 3B spelling Emilio Bonafacio or 2B filling in for Dan Uggla, or LF for Jeremy Hermida. But once Hermida started his annual slump, and Coghlan showed that he could hit and get on base at a solid rate, Coghlan took over in LF, a position he never played before. Well, that certainly didn't affect him at the plate. In 482 ABs, he has gone 9-44-7-.315-.385-.450-.835 in his first full season in the majors. As I stated over the weekend, Coghlan stole alot of bases in the minors. Should he start stealing bases, his value will increase, especially since the Marlins plan to move him to 2B in 2010.
Mets-Angel Pagan-although he hasn't played a full season, as he was hurt like most every other Met this season, Pagan has hit very well when he is healthy. In 352 ABs, he has gone 6-31-13-.298-.346-.473-.819, which is solid production for a guy who figures to be a 4th outfielder in 2010. Should the Mets not go out and sign a left fielder, Pagan could be starting everyday in 2010, and should be a cheap source of SBs at the end of your draft or auction.
Nationals-Ryan Zimmerman-I am not sure if Zimmerman had a true breakout season in 2009, as he already has had some pretty solid seasons, but he has established himself as one of the top 2-3 third baseman in the NL in 2010 and beyond. In 588 ABs, he has gone 32-102-105-.287-.360-.517-.877. He has set personal bests in HRs, runs scored, AVG, OBP, SLG and OPS in 2009. He has accomplished these personal best by increasing his HR/FB% from 8.2% to 12.6%, his line drive % from 17% to 21%, his BB% from 6.7% to 10.5%, and lowered his GB% from 0.88 to 0.66.
(c) 2009 Sportsblogs, Inc.
Kings of the Hill
We are deep enough in the season that major league division leaders are already promoting magic numbers to clinch divisions. While the top major league teams are mostly the usual suspects, what is more surprising is the pitchers who are leading the way.
This week's Kings of the Hill consists of young hurlers who are getting hot when it matters most and some veterans who are enjoying their new surroundings.
CLAY BUCHHOLZ, SP, RED SOX
The Red Sox are gaining some momentum as they prepare for the playoffs, and 25-year-old hurler Clay Buchholz has certainly played his part. Buchholz has won his last four decisions dating back to August 19. The Texas native became a household name in fantasy circles three years ago, when he tossed a no-hitter in his second career start. After enduring a sophomore slump last season, Buchholz has recently rediscovered his winning ways. Buchholz limited the Rays to just one run in seven innings on Sunday. That marks seven quality outings in his last eight appearances. Buchholz record stands at 5-3 with a respectable 3.66 ERA. He's not only a worthy pickup for the remainder of the season, but particularly valuable in keeper leagues.
RICK PORCELLO, SP, TIGERS
After enduring a rocky July, Tigers rookie Rick Porcello has returned to his winning ways. Porcello nabbed his third straight win after limiting the Toronto Blue Jays to two runs through six innings on Sunday. Porcello is pitching like a veteran these days, which is most remarkable considering he is just 20-years old. While Porcello is an incredible talent, when it comes to fantasy baseball, the precocious right-hander's value is limited. To the contrast of Tigers ace Justin Verlander, Porcello does not fan many batters and he tends to allow several runners on base. His greatest asset this season is his 13-8 record and respectable 4.21 ERA. Considering his youth, Porcello can be expected to improve his all-around statistics in the years to come.
BRIAN DUENSING, SP, TWINS
Of all the young arms on the Twins, Brian Duensing is not the pitcher you'd expect to see as one of the better fantasy options. But sure enough, while Francisco Liriano has struggled and Kevin Slowey has been shut down due to injury, it's the 25-year-old Duensing who has evolved as the most reliable arm behind Scott Baker in the rotation. The sudden success is surprising, considering Duensing has struggled in the minor leagues. After finishing just 5-11 with a 4.28 ERA last season, Duensing was 4-6 with a 4.66 ERA in 13 starts this season at Triple A. Regardless, ever since a promotion, Duensing has been a winner in the majors. On Sunday, he shut out the Oakland A's over seven innings to improve to 3-1 with a 3.53 ERA, marking his fifth straight quality start. Before jumping to pluck the former Nebraska Cornhusker off the waiver wire, I would suggest holding off. This is likely nothing more than a string of beginner's luck.
BRAD PENNY, SP, GIANTS
Apparently the American League is much more competitive than the National League this season. How else can you explain how journeyman pitcher Brad Penny went from waiver wire dud to fantasy stud with the San Francisco Giants? On Sunday, Penny limited the first-place Dodgers to just two earned runs over seven innings, improving to 3-0 with a sensational 1.64 ERA since returning to the NL. In 24 starts with Boston earlier this season, Penny went just 7-8 with an astronomical 5.61 ERA. Penny is worth picking up considering his previous success in the NL. In fact, Penny enjoyed back-to-back seasons with 16 wins while pitching for the Dodgers in 2006 and 2007. He has fit in well with the Giants' stellar starting rotation.
JON GARLAND, SP, DODGERS
At 29-years old, Jon Garland is on the verge of his eighth straight season with double-digit wins. The good news for fantasy managers is that he should get it sooner than later now that he is pitching in the comfortable confines of Dodgers Stadium. In addition to the transition from a hitter's park to a pitcher's park, Garland will also enjoy the fruits of a better defence and greater offensive support in Los Angeles. In two starts since leaving the Diamondbacks, Garland has picked up a win with a solid 3.46 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. The forecast is even more favorable as Garland is expected to make two starts at Dodgers Stadium this week, where he owns a 2.08 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in two career starts. Fantasy managers should jump at the chance to pick up Garland for his next two starts against the hapless Pirates and the offensively-inept Giants.
JASON HAMMEL, SP, ROCKIES
Despite losing two of three to the Padres this weekend, the Rockies are red-hot right now, and even the pitchers are considered fine investments. On that note, I like the prospects of Jason Hammel enjoying a fine week. The former Tampa Bay Rays hurler boasts an 8-7 record and 4.31 ERA. More importantly, Hammel is poised to make two starts on the road this week, where he has gone 6-4 with a much more impressive 2.93 ERA. Hammel opposes the Giants and Diamondbacks. The match-ups should lead to fine results as the Giants lack power and the Diamondbacks consist of several free swingers. That makes Hammel a better fantasy option than some pitchers enjoying much better seasons.
(c) Sportsnet.ca.
Ichiro Suzuki Is Even More Valuable in Fantasy Baseball Than You Think
Seattle's Ichiro Suzuki has been a fantasy baseball standout since exploding onto the MLB scene in 2001 with a .350 batting average and 56 steals, earning him MVP and Rookie of the Year honors. Over his nine MLB seasons, Ichiro has batted .333 and averaged 39 steals and 111 runs per 162 games. As he achieves career milestones, Ichiro continues to perform at a high level, batting .353 so far this season.
But a critical stat in gauging Ichiro's fantasy value is one that is rarely considered in traditional leagues - number of at-bats.
As a leadoff hitter who was never on the disabled list before this year, Ichiro has always had a large number of plate appearances. He has led the American League in this category four times. But thanks to his relatively low walk total, most of Ichiro's plate appearances result in official at bats. Ichiro has led the AL in at-bats six times, including the last five seasons in a row before this one.
For each 162 games in his MLB career, Ichiro has 693 AB in 751 PA.
Why should we care if Ichiro has so many AB? Compare his numbers to those of Albert Pujols, who does not bat leadoff and who walks a lot more than Ichiro does. For each 162 games, Pujols averages 596 AB in 704 PA.
So, over 162 games, Ichiro has 97 more AB than Pujols.
Let's say Ichiro and Pujols both hit Ichiro's current average of .353, but Ichiro has a similar average over an additional 97 AB (34 hits in 97 AB would be a BA of .3505).
Let's say your fantasy team has a .280 BA in 5000 total at bats (1400 total hits).
Now add 97 AB and 34 hits to those totals.
Your team BA will go from .280 to .2813. That may not sound like much, but it could give you an extra point or two in the BA category.
Obviously, Pujols has much better stats overall than Ichiro (and everyone else), but the point of this exercise is to show that two players with the same high batting average will not have the same value to your team. That will depend on who has more AB.
Leagues typically have game limits, but they do not have limits for AB. So a player like Ichiro who hits for a high average can give you an extra advantage.
At 35, does Ichiro retain the same fantasy value he has had in his MLB career? Ichiro's steals are down this year, to 24 in 128 games. But if he maintains his BA of .353, it will be the second-highest total in his MLB career.
This year, Ichiro's PA/game of 4.67 is similar to his career average, but he has walked less, so his AB/game has gone up to 4.43.
So when Ichiro plays, he is even more valuable for batting average. But Ichiro has not always played this year. He went on the DL for the first time in his MLB career in April with a bleeding ulcer. Ichiro also missed a few games in August with a strained calf.
A player with a very high BA who misses some games can still be extremely valuable - just look at Joe Mauer. But even if Ichiro maintains that lofty BA, if he starts to miss 10 or 20 games a season it will undercut what has been one of his biggest fantasy advantages - his high AB total.
(c) The Faster Times.
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